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China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 13%, play money 8% No: real money 87%, play money 92% Volume: real money 1163.81263469, play money 231327.59729407 Bettors: real money 33, play money 500 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Global Conflicts, Taiwan Related markets Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? (ID: 231586) Volume: real 345.42534656, play 32035.5703135 Bettors: real 6, play 20 Leading (real money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 10% Leading (play money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 14% Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? (ID: 222154) Volume: real 180.0649996, play 31619.99829582 Bettors: real 3, play 25 Leading (real money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 4% Leading (play money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 8% End of US military operation in Iran by ...? (ID: 237495) Volume: real 943.49089847, play 35956.56812966 Bettors: real 23, play 17 Leading (real money): June 30 60% Leading (play money): June 30 84%

China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a. Taiwan) have risen since 2016.

If by December 31st, 2026, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.

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Comments

  • JayPHailey: PRC probably has a go date set in April 27.
  • peakist: @futuur You also created a (more recent) dupe here : https://futuur.com/q/231681/will-china-try-to-take-taiwan-using-military-force-in-2026
  • 1574644233: 这是碰都不能碰的滑梯

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