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China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 1%, play money 8% No: real money 99%, play money 92% Volume: real money 1711.95573343, play money 248684.5794556 Bettors: real money 35, play money 510 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Global Conflicts, Taiwan Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 5661.40639958, play 108820.82225435 Bettors: real 68, play 68 Leading (real money): Anthropic 94% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? (ID: 231586) Volume: real 160.60586931, play 12608.41721536 Bettors: real 7, play 22 Leading (real money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 8% Leading (play money): Ballistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026? 13% Iran to agree to end uranium enrichment by ...? (ID: 238235) Volume: real 594.32564522, play 26200.89504964 Bettors: real 19, play 17 Leading (real money): December 31 39% Leading (play money): December 31 36% What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026? (ID: 239444) Volume: real 3414.25027855, play 45219.50806827 Bettors: real 37, play 41 Leading (real money): Between $ 60,000 and $ 74,999.99 39% Leading (play money): Between $ 75,000 and $ 89,999.99 28% Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? (ID: 222154) Volume: real 80.0849996, play 22062.57817632 Bettors: real 3, play 27 Leading (real money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 4% Leading (play money): Will Xi Jinping leave office in 2026? 8%

China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a. Taiwan) have risen since 2016.

If by December 31st, 2026, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.

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Comments

  • JayPHailey: PRC probably has a go date set in April 27.
  • peakist: @futuur You also created a (more recent) dupe here : https://futuur.com/q/231681/will-china-try-to-take-taiwan-using-military-force-in-2026
  • 1574644233: 这是碰都不能碰的滑梯

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