Will Brazil constitute a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This market concerns whether Brazil will constitute a strategic Bitcoin reserve at any time by the end of the calendar year 2026. The Market Period runs from August 22, 2025, 00:00:00 UTC through December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC inclusive. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is official publications from the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) and/or the Federal Government (for example, law, decree, CMN resolution, BCB circular, or notice in the Diário Oficial da União) confirming one of the following qualifying conditions:
- International reserves inclusion: BCB explicitly states that Bitcoin (BTC) is held as part of Brazil’s official international reserves (not merely through synthetic exposure), and such holdings are in effect during the Market Period.
- Sovereign strategic reserve/fund: An official sovereign reserve or fund is established with an explicit mandate to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, and at least one funded allocation in BTC is executed and in effect during the Market Period, as evidenced by BCB/Ministry publications or the Diário Oficial.
Resolution rules: If any qualifying condition above is verifiably met within the Market Period, this market will resolve to “Yes” (principle of first-truth resolution). Announcements or approvals that are not yet effective, pilot tests without funded BTC holdings, exposures via derivatives only, or holdings by state-owned companies, state banks, sub-national entities, pension funds, or ETFs do not count unless they are expressly recognized by BCB as part of Brazil’s sovereign reserves. Plans or mandates with effective dates after 2026 do not count. If no qualifying condition is met within the Market Period, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sourcing & fairness: If the PDS is unavailable, significantly delayed, or ambiguous, Futuur may also rely on reports from reputable news organizations chosen at its own discretion to confirm the market’s resolution. Resolution will prioritize the substantive outcome and the clear intent of this market rather than minor technicalities in how sources present the information. Futuur aims to resolve within 24 hours of definitive confirmation. If, after exhausting these mechanisms, a fair determination remains impossible, the market may be cancelled.
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