Nuclear conflict in the world in 2026?

This event predicts whether a nuclear conflict will occur anywhere in the world between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). A “nuclear conflict” means at least one nuclear weapon detonation or nuclear strike in a hostile/conflict context. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be an official statement or incident confirmation by the United Nations (e.g., the UN Secretary-General or UN Security Council) that a nuclear weapon was used/detonated in such a context during the market period.

If a nuclear weapon detonation/strike in a hostile/conflict context is officially confirmed by the UN within this period, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the UN does not issue a clear confirmation, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on a clear and consistent consensus reported by multiple major, editorially independent news organizations about such a nuclear weapon use. Accidents at nuclear power plants or other non-weapon nuclear incidents will not count unless they involve intentional nuclear retaliation/use of a nuclear weapon. Resolution will follow the substantive event (nuclear weapon use), not minor technicalities; if a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.