Will Nvidia's Blackwell chips be sold in China by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Nvidia Corporation will sell its Blackwell-generation chips in China at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, “sold in China” means commercially sold or delivered to customers located in China. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official disclosures by Nvidia, including earnings reports, regulatory filings, or official statements confirming sales or deliveries in China.
If Nvidia confirms sales or deliveries of Blackwell chips to customers in China within this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Announcements of intent without actual sales or deliveries will not count. If official disclosures are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major, reputable technology or financial news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive occurrence of sales/deliveries, not licensing or export-control technicalities. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.
This market concerns Nvidia's Blackwell AI accelerator products intended for AI training or AI inference in servers and data centers. Consumer GeForce GPUs are excluded, regardless of architecture.