Will Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026?

This event predicts whether Elon Musk will formally create or register a political party in the United States at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, creating a party means formal registration with relevant U.S. electoral authorities. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official filings or announcements confirming party registration.

If Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Statements of intent or informal movements without official registration will not count. If official filings are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major U.S. news organizations. Resolution will reflect substantive party creation, not public statements alone. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.