Will Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026?

This event predicts whether the state of Iran will formally cease to be designated as an Islamic Republic at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, a qualifying outcome means an official change in the country’s constitutional name or form of government that removes the “Islamic Republic” designation. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements by Iran’s government or constitutional documents reflecting such a change.

If Iran officially changes its constitutional name or form of government to omit the “Islamic Republic” designation during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A coup, contested proclamation, or unrecognized declaration will not count unless acknowledged by Iran’s governing institutions or recognized by the United Nations. If official documentation is unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive, recognized change in state designation, not disputed claims. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.