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Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? Kash Patel: real money 69%, play money 72% Kristi Noem: real money 54%, play money 19% Tulsi Gabbard: real money 52%, play money 52% Howard Lutnick: real money 46%, play money 52% Pete Hegseth: real money 32%, play money 25% RFK Jr.: real money 25%, play money 25% Peter Navarro: real money 21%, play money 24% Brendan Carr: real money 19%, play money 33% Marco Rubio: real money 13%, play money 15% Pam Bondi: real money 45%, play money 28% Volume: real money 649.46353836, play money 68989.89904398 Bettors: real money 61, play money 77 Categories: Politics, USA, White House, Staff and Cabinet Related markets Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3007.08647864, play 136868.79585516 Bettors: real 30, play 208 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 8% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 57% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2608.60104832, play 114652.95944582 Bettors: real 39, play 210 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 94% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 74%

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts which of the listed individuals will cease to hold their office within the Trump administration at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC. An individual is considered to have left the administration if they resign, are dismissed, are reassigned outside the administration, or otherwise no longer occupy an official government position within it. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official announcement from the White House or the relevant U.S. government department confirming the individual’s departure.

If official confirmation is delayed, incomplete, or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will consist of corroboration from multiple major, reputable U.S. news organizations reporting the individual’s confirmed departure based on official statements. Resolution will prioritize the substantive outcome over minor technicalities in timing or wording, and Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation if a fair determination becomes impossible.

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Comments

  • peakist: @futuur Why not solve the Kristi Noem market ? She's been gone for a month now, as per wikipedia : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristi_Noem
  • pedro_brito: Hi @peakist! I think the market hasn't closed yet because Kristi Noem was reassigned to a new role as Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas — she remains in the Trump administration, just not as DHS Secretary.
  • peakist: That helps, thanks @pedro_brito . This is yet another example of the world events being not black and white but in shades of grey I guess (though there are many exceptions)
  • peakist: @futuur Saw this on TG : " Trump has officially fired “Border Patrol Barbie” Kristi Noem and replaced her with Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin,"
  • aimar321: Karoline Leavitt ?

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