Winner of France’s presidential election
Market Rules
This event predicts who will win the next presidential election in France, currently expected to be held in April 2027. France elects its President using a two-round system. A candidate who receives more than 50% of valid votes in the first round is elected. If no candidate achieves this threshold, a second-round runoff is held between the top two candidates. The market listing the name of the candidate who is officially elected President of France, including after any runoff, will resolve to "Yes". All other markets will resolve to "No".
Markets may resolve before official certification once the outcome is clearly determined and no longer subject to reasonable doubt, based on substantially complete vote counts. Final certification is not required if the winning candidate cannot realistically be overtaken. If the results of the election are not definitively known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this event may be canceled.
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official election results published by the French Ministry of the Interior. If official results are delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and overwhelming consensus of major reputable news organizations reporting the same winner based on official data. Resolution will be based on the substantive election outcome, not the timing of certification or minor reporting differences. If a fair determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel the event with a public explanation.