Will Sara Duterte be convicted and removed from office in 2026?
Market Rules
If the Senate of the Philippines, sitting as an impeachment court, votes to convict Vice President Sara Duterte by the constitutionally required two-thirds majority (at least 16 of 24 senators), resulting in her removal from office, at any time between this market’s creation date and December 31, 2026 15:59:59 UTC, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The Primary Designated Source for resolution is the official record of the Philippine Senate impeachment court, as published by the Senate of the Philippines (senate.gov.ph), including the official Senate journal, plenary minutes, and press releases.
If the Senate acquits Duterte, dismisses the case, adjourns sine die without a verdict, or otherwise fails to render a conviction by the deadline above, the market will resolve to "No". Resignation, death, or assumption of the presidency by Duterte before a Senate verdict does not count as a conviction. If the Supreme Court of the Philippines declares the impeachment proceedings unconstitutional and they are not subsequently revived and concluded with a conviction by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "No". Reputable secondary news sources may be used to confirm the official outcome. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.