US unemployment rate — August 2026
Above 3.7%: real money 95%, play money 95%
Above 3.8%: real money 94%, play money 94%
Above 3.9%: real money 94%, play money 94%
Above 4.0%: real money 86%, play money 86%
Above 4.1%: real money 64%, play money 64%
Above 4.2%: real money 39%, play money 39%
Above 4.3%: real money 15%, play money 15%
Above 4.4%: real money 12%, play money 12%
Above 4.5%: real money 11%, play money 11%
Above 4.6%: real money 11%, play money 11%
Volume: real money 0, play money 0
Bettors: real money 0, play money 0
Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Employment
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Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%US unemployment rate — August 2026
Market Rules
Each market in this event resolves "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted US unemployment rate (U-3) for August 2026, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report (one decimal place), is above the listed threshold. Markets resolve independently — every threshold below the reported figure resolves "Yes".