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SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 17%, play money 23% No: real money 83%, play money 77% Volume: real money 1126.67787528, play money 186418.91011211 Bettors: real money 28, play money 142 Categories: Science, Space Exploration, Mars Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 323.78856749, play 21245.852668 Bettors: real 40, play 30 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? (ID: 202141) Volume: real 138.25693846, play 14240.0204 Bettors: real 6, play 24 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 6% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 21% SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 834.305523, play 72986.13881221 Bettors: real 19, play 87 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 11% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 7%

SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

This market aims to predict whether SpaceX will launch at least one Starship spacecraft without a human crew to Mars by December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the referred date, the Starship is effectively launched towards Mars and successfully leaves the orbit of the Earth, regardless of whether or not it successfully reaches the orbit of Mars and lands on the planet's surface.

This market may resolve to "No" before the end of 2026 if SpaceX officially announces that it will NOT launch such a mission to Mars by the referred date.

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