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IAEA-confirmed radioactive contamination accident by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 23%, play money 21% No: real money 77%, play money 79% Volume: real money 105.85127472, play money 11025.09305472 Bettors: real money 7, play money 7 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Nuclear Issues Related markets New nuclear weapon tests in 2026? (ID: 231665) Volume: real 251.32383745, play 26979.14556385 Bettors: real 10, play 10 Leading (real money): New nuclear weapon tests in 2026? 20% Leading (play money): New nuclear weapon tests in 2026? 29% Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026? (ID: 231622) Volume: real 556.33238493, play 87032.88298711 Bettors: real 12, play 21 Leading (real money): Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026? 68% Leading (play money): Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026? 59% Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? (ID: 231636) Volume: real 237.06926947, play 24017.44717551 Bettors: real 8, play 13 Leading (real money): Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? 17% Leading (play money): Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? 12% China to double its amount of stockpiled nuclear warheads (as of 2021) by the end of 2026? (ID: 231688) Volume: real 210.32850949, play 23267.71796781 Bettors: real 6, play 8 Leading (real money): China to double its amount of stockpiled nuclear warheads (as of 2021) by the end of 2026? 34% Leading (play money): China to double its amount of stockpiled nuclear warheads (as of 2021) by the end of 2026? 39%

IAEA-confirmed radioactive contamination accident by the end of 2026?

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Throughout human history, there have been several accidents involving contamination with radioactive material, such as the Chernobyl accident, which was the biggest nuclear disaster in history (1986); the Fukushima accident, which was the most recent (2011); and the Cesium 137 accident in Goiânia (Brazil), which happened outside a nuclear energy installation due to the abandonment of radiotherapy devices (1987).

All these accidents were tragedies that took many lives - even after several years from their occurrence -, and their occurrence led to higher safety standards in an attempt to lower the odds of something similar happening again.

If between January 1st, 2025, and December 31st, 2026, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officially declares it identified the occurrence of a new accident that leads to contamination with radioactive material - be it in nuclear installations or not - this market will be resolved as "Yes". The IAEA normally reports accidents of that type on their page at https://www.iaea.org/topics/accident-reports

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