China to double its amount of stockpiled nuclear warheads (as of 2021) by the end of 2026?

This event predicts whether China’s estimated stockpile of nuclear warheads will be at least double its estimated 2021 level by December 31, 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be authoritative estimates published by recognized institutions such as the U.S. Department of Defense or the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

If authoritative estimates indicate that China’s nuclear warhead stockpile is at least double its estimated 2021 level by the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Minor estimation revisions that do not materially indicate doubling will not count. If different authoritative sources materially disagree, Futuur will use its discretion to determine the most credible assessment. If estimates are unavailable or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international defense analysis organizations. Resolution will reflect substantive doubling relative to 2021, not speculation. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.