Will the SCOTUS decide that the POTUS can fire a member of the Fed's board without cause by June 30?
Market Rules
This market will resolve based on whether the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) issues a ruling during its current term (ending June 30, 2026) in the case Cook v. Trump, or any directly consolidated case, determining that the President of the United States (POTUS) has the constitutional authority to remove a sitting member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at will. For the purpose of this market, a “Yes” outcome requires that the Court explicitly holds that the statutory removal protections for Federal Reserve governors are unconstitutional, or otherwise confirms that the President may dismiss such officials without cause. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official opinion and judgment published on the Supreme Court of the United States website.
If the Court rules that Federal Reserve governors can only be removed for cause, upholds existing statutory protections, dismisses the case, or avoids ruling on presidential removal powers, the market will resolve to “No.” If the case is deferred to a later term or withdrawn without a ruling, the market will also resolve to “No”. If the official opinion is delayed or unclear, Futuur will rely on reporting by reliable news outlets, chosen at Futuur’s discretion, confirming the substance of the Court’s decision.