Will Brazil’s sovereign credit rating be downgraded by Fitch, Moody’s, or S&P in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Brazil’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating will be downgraded by any of Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Ratings, or S&P Global Ratings between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official rating action announcements published by the respective rating agencies.
If any of these agencies formally lowers Brazil’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign rating during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Outlook changes, credit watch placements, or national-scale rating actions that do not involve a downgrade of the rating level will not count. If official rating announcements are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major financial news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive change in rating level, not methodological or outlook adjustments. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.
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