Will Greenland become independent in 2026?

This event predicts whether Greenland will become an independent sovereign state at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, independence means Greenland formally ceasing to be part of the Kingdom of Denmark and being recognized by its own authorities as a sovereign state. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official declarations or legally binding acts by Greenlandic and Danish authorities confirming independence.

If Greenland formally declares and implements independence from Denmark during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Referendums or negotiations alone, without formal independence taking effect, will not count. If official declarations are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive achievement of independence, not preliminary political steps. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.