Will Serbia normalize relations with Kosovo in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Serbia will formally normalize relations with Kosovo at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, normalization means an official declaration by the European Union that Serbia has met the normalization criteria required for EU accession. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be an official EU declaration confirming normalization.
If the European Union officially declares that Serbia has normalized relations with Kosovo during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Bilateral gestures or partial agreements without EU confirmation will not count. If official EU statements are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive EU-recognized normalization outcome, not isolated diplomatic steps. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.