Will the US strike Mexico by ...?
Market Rules
This event concerns whether the United States conducts a military strike against legitimate targets inside the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Mexico between this event’s creation date and the deadline specified in the title (the “Event Period”). A qualifying “US strike on Mexico” means kinetic military action by U.S. armed forces (e.g., air, missile, naval or ground strikes) that hits targets in Mexican territory, airspace, or territorial waters, authorized and conducted by the U.S. government as a military action.
For the purposes of this market, the following clearly do not qualify as “US strikes”:
- Border incidents involving law enforcement or security forces without U.S. military authorization;
- Cooperative joint operations with Mexican forces;
- Counter-drug interdictions by U.S. agencies without formal military command involvement;
- Accidental or collateral exchanges of fire at or near the border where no official U.S. military operation is declared;
- Any action not officially described by the U.S. government as a military strike.
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official public statement or document confirming such a strike from either (i) the U.S. Department of Defense, (ii) the White House (including the President or official spokespersons), or (iii) the U.S. Department of War equivalent authority. If a qualifying U.S. military strike on Mexico is confirmed by the PDS during the Event Period, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the PDS during the Event Period, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the PDS is delayed, contradictory, or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and overwhelming consensus from credible, major news organizations reporting a U.S. military strike on confirmed Mexican territory based on official sources. Resolution will be based on substantive military action and intent, not reporting technicalities. If no fair determination is possible, Futuur may cancel the market with a public explanation.