São Paulo governor election winner in 2026
Market Rules
This event predicts which candidate will be elected Governor of the state of São Paulo in the general election scheduled for October 4, 2026.
The market corresponding to the candidate who is elected Governor of São Paulo will resolve to "Yes". The winner is the candidate who receives the majority of valid votes in accordance with Brazil’s electoral system. If no candidate obtains the required majority in the first round, a runoff election will be held, and the event will resolve based on the official winner of that runoff.
These markets may resolve before official certification once the outcome is clearly determined and no longer subject to reasonable doubt, based on substantially complete vote counts published by the Brazilian electoral authority. Final certification is not required if the leading candidate cannot realistically be overtaken.
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official vote counts published by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral – TSE). If official data is delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and overwhelming consensus of major reputable news organizations reporting the same winner based on official results. Resolution will be based on the substantive election outcome, not the formal timing of certification. If the outcome becomes uncertain due to recounts, legal challenges, or other developments, resolution may be delayed. If a fair determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel the event with a public explanation.
Tags
Related Markets
- Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026?
- Lula to finish his presidential term?
- Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026?
- Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term?
- Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026?