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Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline? 1.52 °C or higher: real money 7%, play money 10% Between 1.48 °C and 1.51 °C (inclusive): real money 18%, play money 17% Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive): real money 50%, play money 48% Between 1.39 °C and 1.42 °C (inclusive): real money 18%, play money 17% Below 1.39 °C: real money 7%, play money 6% Volume: real money 1.30100339, play money 3260.7021384 Bettors: real money 8, play money 8 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1711.95573343, play 248684.5794556 Bettors: real 35, play 510 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 8% Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 4823.17956415, play 106525.56536451 Bettors: real 68, play 66 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% Global presence of algae in coral reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? (ID: 142272) Volume: real 294.15003741, play 35134.6206922 Bettors: real 14, play 84 Leading (real money): Global presence of algae in coral reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 76% Leading (play money): Global presence of algae in coral reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 34% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 316.75459546, play 17381.5251826 Bettors: real 23, play 60 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 46% Leading (play money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 62% Total area of dead Coral Reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? (ID: 142271) Volume: real 472.56043864, play 113447.77353371 Bettors: real 29, play 191 Leading (real money): Total area of dead Coral Reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 84% Leading (play money): Total area of dead Coral Reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 90%

Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Market Rules

What will the global average surface air temperature anomaly for the full year 2026 be, expressed in degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline? Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive range; exactly one will resolve "Yes".

The Primary Designated Source is the Data Action Foundation's Climate Change Tracker. Resolution uses the first Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly value reported by the tracker for the full year 2026 (timestamped after 2026). If the methodology changes substantially, Futuur might follow the same methodology to calculate the value for 2026. Otherwise, this question may be annulled.

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