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Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? Yes: real money 18%, play money 17% No: real money 82%, play money 83% Volume: real money 208.51722965, play money 22299.9911 Bettors: real money 7, play money 3 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Scandals Related markets Will Eduardo Bolsonaro return to Brazil by the end of 2026? (ID: 231542) Volume: real 205.43856192, play 25186.12558941 Bettors: real 6, play 6 Leading (real money): Will Eduardo Bolsonaro return to Brazil by the end of 2026? 19% Leading (play money): Will Eduardo Bolsonaro return to Brazil by the end of 2026? 14% Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026? (ID: 231687) Volume: real 243.90599191, play 24710.0125 Bettors: real 10, play 9 Leading (real money): Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026? 27% Leading (play money): Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026? 25% MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term (ID: 176644) Volume: real 209.57896572, play 19156.73 Bettors: real 33, play 76 Leading (real money): More than 180 57% Leading (play money): More than 180 41% How many ‘Core #1’ convicts from Brazil’s coup plot trial will lose military ranks in 2026? (ID: 231733) Volume: real 414.17589971, play 33899.9963 Bettors: real 21, play 8 Leading (real money): 0 63% Leading (play money): 0 68% PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? (ID: 203256) Volume: real 169.03325676, play 50745.98196284 Bettors: real 7, play 14 Leading (real money): PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? 7% Leading (play money): PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? 8%

Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether any son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro (Carlos, Eduardo, Flávio, or Renan Bolsonaro) will be arrested at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, an “arrest” means physical detention by law enforcement authorities with the intent to hold the person in custody. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmation from competent law enforcement or judicial authorities (e.g., official statements or court/custody records).

If any of the individuals listed above is arrested (as defined) during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". An arrest will count for "Yes" even if it is brief or followed by release on bail. If official documentation is delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from multiple major, editorially independent news organizations. Resolution will reflect whether an arrest occurred, not minor technicalities about reporting format. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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