Markets
Leaderboard
Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026? Yes: real money 27%, play money 25% No: real money 73%, play money 75% Volume: real money 243.90599191, play money 24710.0125 Bettors: real money 10, play money 9 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Scandals Related markets Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? (ID: 231548) Volume: real 208.51722965, play 22299.9911 Bettors: real 7, play 3 Leading (real money): Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? 18% Leading (play money): Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026? 17% Which of Brazil's military commanders will remain in office through the end of 2026? (ID: 231750) Volume: real 100.5803685, play 10600.0082 Bettors: real 12, play 3 Leading (real money): Army Commander (General Tomás Paiva) 92% Leading (play money): Army Commander (General Tomás Paiva) 92% PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? (ID: 203256) Volume: real 169.03325676, play 50745.98196284 Bettors: real 7, play 14 Leading (real money): PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? 7% Leading (play money): PSDB to cease to exist in Brazil by July 1, 2026? 8% MST land invasions by the end of Lula’s term (ID: 176644) Volume: real 209.57896572, play 19156.73 Bettors: real 33, play 76 Leading (real money): More than 180 57% Leading (play money): More than 180 41%

Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether any minister serving in President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration will be arrested at any time during calendar year 2026. For this market, arrest means being formally detained by law enforcement authorities, regardless of whether the individual is still in office at the time of arrest. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements by Brazilian judicial or law enforcement authorities.

If any minister from Lula’s administration is formally arrested during 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Investigations, indictments, or questioning without detention will not count. If official records are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major Brazilian news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive act of arrest, not allegations. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

Comments

  • pedro_brito: My reading is that “Lula’s administration” here means the current administration/mandate (2023–2026) . Therefore, the market should resolve Yes only if a minister from this term is formally arrested during 2026.

Related Markets